IC29: Will our dependency on oil ever end?

00:00:10: Welcome to Inconvenient Chats, my name's Jan.

00:00:12: My name is Kaiser

00:00:14: and we're two friends who both have been working with climate change for a number of years now.

00:00:18: I'm an economist by trade.

00:00:20: Kaiser you are?

00:00:23: I am political scientist background but just like your working sustainability nowadays

00:00:28: And in convenient chats as our podcast to lean into some inconvenient questions regarding climate Change and societal change We break them down.

00:00:36: We discuss different perspectives and be explore solutions And in the end, hopefully feel a little bit less inconvenient about them.

00:00:43: We ask every week guys do you have good memory?

00:00:47: No I can't remember.

00:00:50: Do you remember what we did last week?

00:00:54: or talked about attribution studies?

00:00:56: that's correct That is correct.

00:01:00: think there so much stuff still that i need to learn about attributions studies and it's so interesting.

00:01:07: A lot of things in there, I think i really only scratch the surface.

00:01:11: So yeah have a listen people if you're interested that it's actually pretty important for climate litigation by now to say which weather events

00:01:24: were

00:01:24: made more severe or more likely because of climate change?

00:01:29: Yeah so important!

00:01:30: I was a bit skeptical in terms of like, what's the larger societal impact?

00:01:43: Yeah.

00:01:44: Or I think science... I was not doubting but maybe more the impact that it could have with society.

00:01:54: so beyond just understanding and creating knowledge you got me convinced there is a big role to play.

00:02:02: Very happy about that cool!

00:02:04: But i was last week.

00:02:06: I hope you brought a topic this week.

00:02:11: It would be great!

00:02:14: Speaking of impact on society, I want to talk about oil and Iran because it's been a topic that has been in my mind for obvious reasons or actually more now.

00:02:37: And obviously, there's so many things to say and all the things that are happening right now in humanitarian suffering.

00:02:48: There is also the economic aspect of it which has been very much on the news oil straight-of-hermose because Iran produces five percent off the world's oil but twenty percent off its oil passes through this straight-off hermose straight being blocked with only Iranian ships going through or at least that being the case in the beginning and then.

00:03:15: Well, there might have been different developments over it since we record this podcast But that has anyway put the price of oil onto everyone slips.

00:03:26: Yes Yeah And also I mean It's part of at least German politics by now where everybody The coalition is discussing how to ease the burden, then you very quickly get into what do you do.

00:03:42: And from a climate perspective it's just a subsidy again for all companies.

00:03:50: if however you structure the easing of costs on citizens?

00:03:56: But it's an interesting topic.

00:03:58: And

00:03:59: indeed, It is a similar situation especially in Germany In terms of what happened after Ukraine and sanctions on Russia.

00:04:06: So you were dependent on the fossil fuel based source of energy that came from a conflict region?

00:04:14: And then that kind of just blew up the prices back home.

00:04:19: so First of all I think to me next to like all the immediate I guess urgency and changes in worry, whatever there is out there.

00:04:30: This oil crisis has also been a reminder of how dependent we still are.

00:04:35: off-oil

00:04:37: very much yeah

00:04:39: so.

00:04:40: And it's not only the gas prices which already went up by twenty percent In one day at the beginning of March in Europe.

00:04:49: So that is quite significant quite a significant increase for an average person who, for example drives every single day.

00:04:58: But it's you know there is also dependency in our food system because most of the fertilizers use oil and different supply chains helium And even clothes.

00:05:14: polyester is made up well.

00:05:17: So It kind of make me feel like wow We really are dependent of this.

00:05:53: makes it more expensive for the regular consumer, because just as an example on another podcast and when all of this started.

00:06:01: I heard also there was a study to look at how petrol prices develop And they talked about gas stations.

00:06:13: When Iran conflict broke out Prices went up quite quickly although the supply shock couldn't have reached them yet.

00:06:25: And so, and historically also prices go up very quickly but tend to come down not very quickly after a conflict has resolved.

00:06:38: So there is... That sounds now of course that again they evil big evil oil companies.

00:06:45: But There Is Something In There That They Are Also Trying To Cash in.

00:06:49: Yes.

00:06:49: It is the oil companies, but I think it's also countries right?

00:06:54: So majority of the world's oil comes from state-owned companies mostly in the Middle East and Russia.

00:07:05: either way just whole talk about Oil and all different problems that this has caused in our societies for a sustainability minded person can be discouraging because we've been talking about moving away from fossil fuels for a long, long time.

00:07:28: But it really feels like we're quite far away from that and I think there are the gap between the ambition.

00:07:48: Again, we come back to this thought of other two thoughts.

00:07:54: Of course one is that we have many off the technologies already.

00:07:58: We just need to scale them to be less dependent on oil Let's say electric vehicles or offshore with all renewable energy Right.

00:08:10: and then there is this talk about this energy trilemma where oil defenders of oil always said energy Cannot be all three of these things clean, secure and affordable.

00:08:24: So one of them you always have to let go And it's simply not true anymore.

00:08:32: Wind and renewables are obviously clean.

00:08:34: They're more affordable than oil especially in the times like now.

00:08:38: Then they are also more secure because... ...they Are yours right?

00:08:43: They aren't at risk Of supply disruptions Like what is happening Now Because they are yours.

00:08:51: No one owns the wind, right?

00:08:52: If you have your own solar if You Have Your Own Wind then it's secure of course you can.

00:08:57: Then Can Have Some Like Supporting Technology With Batteries and Storage or Hydrogen Storage etc.

00:09:05: But The Energy Trilama is like a smoke screen argument by now And Every Renewable Solve All Of That.

00:09:12: Yeah but Is It Really and I think this This Is Where We Maybe Get to Detention because i've been you know, then trying to research this question of can we really transition away from oil?

00:09:25: Giving all these different dependencies that we have.

00:09:27: And it's just really difficult to get an answer.

00:09:31: so for example on renewables which are growing and should be growing I guess if will look at the silver linings We could think maybe this oil supply change disruption is going give additional boost for building up renewables, because as you say they grant you strategic autonomy in terms of electricity generation.

00:09:57: But we also depend on carbohydrates in our clothes and in our fertilizers.

00:10:07: so in the fruit system speaking off electrical vehicles For example, wind turbines are being manufactured.

00:10:22: Helium is a byproduct of oil and gas processing.

00:10:25: that's needed for all different types of hardware... ...for example for semiconductors.

00:10:34: This was one supply chain which was also very disrupted because Qatar is the major producer of helium.

00:10:46: It kind of made me think, and I guess this is like a devil's advocate.

00:10:51: And very cynical question would be it just so complex right?

00:10:56: You know oil has brought for the good reason.

00:11:00: So its really transportable.

00:11:02: Its relatively cheap because we're only paying the cost Of what it takes to pump off the ground.

00:11:07: Its easy!

00:11:09: So its enabled us To do so much in the past few hundred years And we're so interlocked with it.

00:11:22: So what that transition really, really imply is I think just a massive question and i'm not even pretending to solve that because... ...I tried to research and see if someone else has solved that?

00:11:38: To be honest its quite difficult find anything or NOT ANYTHING?

00:11:43: You can find a lot of things, but it's really hard to see what information is complete.

00:11:49: What are opinions framed as facts?

00:11:53: Because It Is Such A Deep Going Topic

00:11:57: I get that you mention all these intricacies because my mind go immediately to electricity production or energy.

00:12:12: heavy industry also needs oil to power their processes.

00:12:17: However, and again I'm absolutely not an expert it feels like

00:12:22: options

00:12:23: do hopefully exist but there i am actually a little bit more in the wizard camp where where I would think that we have outside options for let's say plastics.

00:12:36: Plastics anyway, there are so many downsides to more and more plastic in the world... ...that you need just a different kind of product.

00:12:47: These things then require innovation because what is an alternative?

00:12:54: The alternative cannot be that it has built certain processes on byproducts of oil or oil itself, that we just fuck up our planet more because We can't change our ways.

00:13:07: I don't think.

00:13:08: yeah also didn't don't?

00:13:10: thank you?

00:13:11: That's the alternative city?

00:13:12: i think The way is clear that no more oil should be burnt and then whatever Processes are dependent on oil or its by-products.

00:13:23: We need to find different solutions.

00:13:26: Yeah And in I think It gets also to the core tension, and I already dilemma however you want to call that.

00:13:35: Which is on the one hand we just can't afford really burn any more fossil fuels.

00:13:44: if you wanna stay within... ...one point five or even two degrees scenario because otherwise where it's going to ruin the conditions of life on the planet Right and then but on the other hand, the demand for oil is going to decrease from now to two twenty fifty

00:14:01: The demand has to increase.

00:14:03: Yes with the currents in the current scenario.

00:14:05: So obviously that it's not.

00:14:06: they did two degrees scenario.

00:14:08: I think we're now at something like four degrees or so.

00:14:10: But it's like.

00:14:11: It's like a massive World-scale conundrum massive contradiction

00:14:17: Because IA saying if there's increasing in certain scenarios shows you simply even if we electrify our society that we are so dependent on oil and its derivative products, they permeate our life.

00:14:35: Again what you said about plastics or clothing

00:14:38: etc.,

00:14:39: there's simply a lot of things where I for example don't know whats based on oil but I maintain my point, then there needs to be a change or certain things have to die simply in the way and products.

00:15:00: Then we...I don't know what it is?

00:15:02: Certain textile clothing or plastic or so that we just not use anymore than product line of item has reached end time because can't use oil any more.

00:15:16: And I guess there's a million different questions you can ask.

00:15:19: How would that transition going to happen?

00:15:21: Is it gonna be by design or by collapse, and i don't have the answers for those.

00:15:26: but just realizing this big contradiction which in itself is also hard to make sense of... overwhelming and to be honest quite inconvenient, uncomfortable because on the it feels like you have your lifestyle in one hand.

00:15:48: And then when looking at this picture they seem much more contradictory than what international, it can also be difficult to relate to.

00:16:06: So like... It makes you feel very small but at the same time it feels very important.

00:16:11: so again I think we get into the numbness slash disengagement risk

00:16:19: because its complex

00:16:20: We've been talking about before.

00:16:22: Because i think Its Very easy in today's world To Feel The Need To Have An Opinion Of something I need to have or and have an argument to back up that opinion, which.

00:16:34: i think it's you know in most cases great but there are also topics where It might be just really difficult To get to the point.

00:16:44: no hundred percent?

00:16:45: That is especially a topic like this so complex And whether So many different parts that it feels not doing it justice by talking about In such big picture because You can't solve if Talk about it big picture wise.

00:17:01: So you actually need to go into the details, but the details are hard to understand?

00:17:05: You can't talk about every single aspect at the same time because they need two details.

00:17:10: so then you only should speak about one detailed aspect.

00:17:13: But then you can always say we're leaving out this one which is also a huge part.

00:17:18: It becomes hot and then you get this in there disengaged.

00:17:20: that's right, but I think that's why Again, it must be possible to still connect all the dots even for a complex topic like that where you don't know.

00:17:32: All of it but then bring people in that know what.

00:17:36: how do How does this?

00:17:38: Question make you feel What thoughts does it evoke here?

00:17:43: The thing is I'm going into it a little bit naive and ignorant.

00:17:47: My main goal is big picture And i'm saying oil instead.

00:17:52: if We want to save, I don't know the lavender that's growing in my garden or the apple tree.

00:18:00: That are have standing.

00:18:01: but then my tiny backyard oil needs today full stop.

00:18:06: so i know The basics of it again?

00:18:12: I'd rather I Know which questions I would want to ask in a way there.

00:18:17: But I can answer them myself because I wouldn't need people that are dead or more Into all of these topics.

00:18:22: I know what the goal needs to be.

00:18:24: i have a feeling that we have solved then A lot of that part already because the electricity or the energy system Is a big part?

00:18:35: Of that still.

00:18:37: and Then the other things, We just need to have also innovation.

00:18:40: i think.

00:18:41: if i think about closing for example there are so many sustainable Closing brands out thereby.

00:18:46: now it must Be possible to move away from.

00:18:49: I don't know, what's oil based?

00:18:51: I guess polyester and nylon.

00:18:55: It must be possible to move away from that.

00:18:57: And then if we can have clothing anymore that is based on nylon That's it.

00:19:02: Then We just Don't Have Nylon Clothes Anymore Than We Just Have Cotton.

00:19:06: You Have A Very Buddhist Attitude Towards It

00:19:08: At One Point.

00:19:09: There Needs To Be a Radical Shift Away From The Way Of Life That We Have.

00:19:17: Two Achieve the goal of killing oil.

00:19:22: that's and it is not gonna be cheap all the way.

00:19:27: It will cost a little bit more, but then we have That's what we have politicians for to make their transition possible and acceptable For the citizens off there nation.

00:19:43: however dead is done.

00:19:46: But I think Big picture vision needs to be.

00:19:51: oil is dead.

00:19:53: To save the planet, ultimately

00:19:57: and again saved a planet so that humans can live

00:20:01: correct right?

00:20:03: So it?

00:20:04: this I mean It's Again what we talked about in the episode your last episode two weeks ago The What you call the selfish case for climate action where We would like to probably live as long As we Can.

00:20:20: I guess that goes for the majority of people, but having more and more greenhouse gases in the air or pollution just doesn't really help you doing

00:20:33: it.

00:20:33: And again then bringing this back to the individual level where like what do you?

00:20:41: Do?

00:20:41: because indeed there's policy.

00:20:44: regulation needs to play a massive role.

00:20:46: There is also redistribution of profits and supporting the people who have it the hardest to transition also, so there's just infrastructure that is being owned by states or big players where you as an individual can't do much.

00:21:10: But I guess we kind of often come back to this, oh what can an individual do versus not?

00:21:15: and maybe it's not really in either or type things.

00:21:20: Yeah

00:21:21: there one thought is also sometimes we don't let the individuals do what they could do

00:21:28: right?

00:21:29: It comes back

00:21:31: with Christian where The World Resource Institute brought out his report.

00:21:35: individual climate action can actually account for quite a bit, but if the framework or guidelines or legislation is not given individuals only realize one tenth of that potential.

00:21:52: That was the number.

00:21:53: and also we sometimes help legislators with subsidies to live.

00:22:07: The life they used to live.

00:22:08: for example now if gas prices are up I know that the German government, for example is trying to alleviate debt by lowering taxes on petrol.

00:22:21: so we're helping people with their lives.

00:22:27: but this money can also be spent differently.

00:22:30: Oh, I remember also from the IPCC.

00:22:33: I think that fossil fuel subsidies are responsible.

00:22:37: if you got rid of them around the world it would reduce emissions by ten percent.

00:22:41: i think was the number so...I Think we also need to decide on where does the money go?

00:22:47: And what do we want to support as an economist?

00:22:51: or and that's also Supported by one of the main economists in Germany again ,and its not a super.

00:23:01: It's a little bit of difficult position, but prices also have signal potential.

00:23:09: If something is expensive people move away from it.

00:23:13: so high gas prices or petrol prices We are the German government by lowering taxes for example distorting that price signal off Something we might not want anymore.

00:23:27: The problem is, of course people cannot switch from an ICE to an EV.

00:23:32: From yesterday through today I get that right.

00:23:35: but price signals are important in an economy so people over time move away from it.

00:23:40: if we are spending money So people can continue living their the life they have lived so far We will never make a transition.

00:23:51: So let's spend the money.

00:23:52: Green VAT?

00:23:54: Yeah There we are, right?

00:23:57: Episode twenty-six or twenty five.

00:23:59: What was it from us that the carbon VAT climate VAT, so I think there is also no overarching strategy of how money spends to move away form our way off life into a new also amazing and can be really again, there we were with the hopeful messages.

00:24:22: way of life.

00:24:23: that just looks different.

00:24:24: But how do we spend money smartly to move into a new world where politicians don't feel like they lose their next election in four years?

00:24:39: That's all.

00:24:39: sometimes there are different incentives.

00:24:42: Many scholars and thinkers and writers I guess you would say, like the degrowth space or in the environmental space.

00:24:54: What they often says is that we need to go towards a future where were going have less but are gonna be happier and then refer back to numerous studies done on human psychology.

00:25:10: what constitutes happiness?

00:25:13: And thats not stuff and money, but it's typically community connections.

00:25:19: Of course I mean your basic needs met... But that's it.

00:25:23: so there are a lot of intangibles.

00:25:24: maybe some hopeful message or messaging could be brought into picture.

00:25:32: I feel like this is the perfect topic for us to find someone, because you and i are also a little bit scratching the surface.

00:25:39: Because we're not super deep into big picture.

00:25:42: systemic transformations.

00:25:44: how do we move our society away from oil?

00:25:47: There must be some one out there that knows about it.

00:25:53: thing of that and how, whether it's possible or not.

00:25:56: I mean you said you would try to find something as difficult but maybe someone off the listeners know knows someone who could talk about that?

00:26:02: And then we can Try to ask that person To come on.

00:26:06: i think The human happiness part is something That will definitely have a lot Of things to say for its more than question of Can We really transition away from oil and what Is that going to entail?

00:26:16: i Think thats lacking some Some concreteness at least based On my googling.

00:26:22: Equal viewing, do you mean?

00:26:24: Yes.

00:26:27: Search engine... But yeah but I think that was my thoughts for today.

00:26:38: it is a rather intimidating topic For many different reasons which i find quite understandable.

00:26:48: that discomfort, because in the end it is really... maybe at the root of whole transition.

00:27:00: That our societies need to go through.

00:27:03: That's a good topic and I think its not over after discussing for twenty five minutes.

00:27:09: No!

00:27:11: It's only the beginning.

00:27:12: Pool?

00:27:13: Yeah but do you want add anything or should we go to the outro?

00:27:22: Thank you very much for bringing the topic Kaiser as always.

00:27:26: If anybody out there wants to give feedback, You can write to kaizai at inconvenientchats.com or yannetinconvenientchats dot com.

00:27:35: if you have a Topic in your mind that you've always wondered about please do send us an email and we'll try To make it less inconvenient for all of you.

00:27:43: You can also support us by hitting subscribe from Apple Podcasts or Spotify, wherever listen to your podcast and leave a review!

00:27:50: And switch on automatic downloads.

00:27:53: Very good thank you very much.

00:27:56: so we're going in two weeks well-deserved break which I think is nice too.

00:28:02: regrouping about our podcast.

00:28:05: if any guys really have feedback let We'll be back in two weeks with some new episodes and more interviews that we've planned.

00:28:13: Exciting!

00:28:16: But, before that... ...we need to hear the latest of Kaiser's moving saga.

00:28:22: So how is the wardrobe?

00:28:24: And hows'the glue?

00:28:27: It's better.

00:28:28: so I'm sleeping on my own bed without any migraines.

00:28:34: That's

00:28:34: good I'm happy.

00:28:35: So it's getting better, however now i seem to have some troubles with my wi-fi because i dropped out of the recording today three times.

00:28:42: so there has been more editing for this episode than usual.

00:28:48: but... Getting there?

00:28:52: It is okay!

00:28:56: Good thing that was talking and kept on rambling.

00:29:04: Thank you so much for the conversation today, Jan.

00:29:07: You too and then we'll hear us probably earlier than two weeks but everybody out there here in two weeks

00:29:15: see them

00:29:27: this time.

00:29:29: Kaiser dropped off.

00:29:31: I think her internet just died like oil.

00:29:36: The problem is i need kaiser's Internet?

00:29:39: Then oil will work.

00:29:47: Maybe she's coming back, maybe not... We'll see!

00:29:51: Until then I'll be quiet.